With July 31 marking 100 days until November’s midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans appear to be virtually tied in the polls, leading to the question: Do the polls tell the whole story?

Behind what appears to be a 44 percent to 44 percent split in support for the two main political parties lies a web of economic and social concerns, any of which could sway the outcome of the midterms.

There is broad agreement among analysts that the economy is going to be one of the top issues for voters in 2022, though opinions differ as to exactly how it will affect the election.

Recent polling conducted for the Economist by YouGov shows that 63 percent of registered voters consider the economy “very important” and another 30 percent see it as “somewhat important,” seemingly confirming conventional wisdom that the economy is perennially the top issue for voters.

Voters generally tend to credit or blame the state of the economy on the party that is most in power, so this year that falls on the Democrats, as they hold the trifecta: the presidency, the House, and the Senate.

“My instinct is that it’s very hard to out-campaign the economy,” a professor of political science at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, tells the Sun. “It’s a really tough obstacle for Democrats no matter how much of a monetary advantage or candidate advantage they have.”

He argues that economic conditions and how they change between now and the midterms are by far the most important issue in this year’s election. The looming recession is unlikely to be anything but bad news for Democrats.

“We know that [President] Biden doesn’t have a button in the White House that controls gas prices, but it is an easy piece of campaign rhetoric to attribute economic problems to those in charge,” Mr. Arbour said. “My general assumption is that ‘whatever’s going on with the economy, the president did it.’”

A professor of political science at Washington University in Saint Louis, Daniel Butler, argues that the effects of economic conditions might be more of an open question, as strong jobs reports and falling gas prices beat back some talk of a recession.

“A lot of economists don’t know what to make of this economy — it’s a big big question mark out there: ‘How are people going to feel about the economy come election week?’” he tells the sun.

Mr. Butler does, however, argue that Republicans, being the party out of power, are perhaps underperforming in relation to what would generally be expected in their situation. 

Amid signs of a sputtering economy and with an unpopular president in White House, Republicans should have plenty of wind in their sails. Instead, they appear to be losing their lead over Democrats.

“When the economy is bad in a midterm election year the president’s party doesn’t do well,” Mr. Butler said. “So for the generic ballot to be close to even, Democrats have to be feeling good.”

Mr. Butler also argues that any good economic news between now and November will benefit Democrats, while the opposite will help Republicans. For now, falling gas prices and strong jobs reports are probably aiding the Democrats.

“One of the things going well for Democrats is that gas prices have gone down — a visible sign of inflation is now less painful,” he said.

A political scientist at the University of Georgia, Charles Bullock, presents a different view of the situation, arguing that the degree to which voters blame the incumbent party for the economy varies with their understanding of the issue.

“If you’re looking for someone to blame and you didn’t get a degree in economics, you might blame the Democrats,” he argues. “A more sophisticated voter might notice that this isn’t just a U.S. problem, it’s a worldwide problem.”

Mr. Bullock argues that those will be the voters who might decide close races in states like Georgia, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania. He contests that, while the economic situation doesn’t stand to benefit Democrats, it also might not bury them on Election Day.

“Think of a voter, maybe in the guise of the white suburban woman who pushed back and couldn’t vote for [President] Trump because of his misogyny,” he said. “Some things might stop her from going back.”

Mr. Bullock contests that these voters, and others like them, might be dissuaded from voting for Republicans based on a broad swath of social issues where “Democrats are closer to where the average voter is than Republicans.”

These issues include gun control, climate change, and, most importantly, abortion. He notes that the generic ballot average has been moving to favor Democrats since the Supreme Court’s recent abortion decision.

“If abortion is indeed moving a few percentage points of the vote in a competitive state it becomes very important,” he argues. “The fact that the generic ballot is roughly even should be a cause for concern among Republicans.”

Of the electorate, “45 percent or so is locked in for Democrats and 45 percent is locked in for Republicans,” Mr. Bullock said. “You’re really playing for 5 to 10 percent of the electorate. So if you have something that can move the vote a few percentage points, that’s the ball game.”

Mr. Bullock argues that the GOP primary electorate is growing progressively distant from the general electorate, while Democrats are apparently coming closer.

“On some critical issues it may be that Democrats may be closer to average Americans than Republicans,” he said. “That’s to say that Republicans are more in the pocket of their core constituency — Trump voters.”

He points to Mr. Trump as being emblematic of this phenomenon, as his influence is often enough to push candidates through the GOP primaries, only to then see them struggle to build coalitions for the general election.

The one thing that every observer seems to agree on is that 100 days is more than enough time for the situation to evolve to the advantage of either party, though the GOP remains the favorite to triumph.

Historically, the party that’s out of power does well in midterm election years, and three months is more than enough time for Republicans to break away from their opponents, like they did in the midterm elections in 2010 and 2014.

Mr. Butler argues that “as we get closer to election days, people tend to return to voting for their party — partisan attachments do matter a lot.”

This is a phenomenon that the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, John Coleman, suspects will shape the 2022 election cycle, at least to some degree.

“I’m still of the mind that it’s looking like a very good year for the Republicans,” he tells the Sun. “In terms of the generic ballot let’s keep in mind that labor day is the unofficial start of the campaign season.”

He argues that 2022 is likely to be “one of the rare situations, historically speaking, when Republicans do well in a high turnout situation.”

While Mr. Coleman recognizes that Democrats may have an advantage in terms of candidates, particularly in some Senate elections, he expects Republicans to take the House, picking up at least 20 seats.

The bottom line, though, is that the whole race could change in the three months between now and November: “We’re 100 days out but the 100 days can be a long time in politics,” he said.