England expects that every man will do his duty. That is the immortal signal raised by Admiral Nelson aboard H.M.S. Victory before the Battle of Trafalgar.

As Horatio Nelson expected the men under his command to do their duty as they engaged the French fleet off Cape Trafalgar, so the United Kingdom expects the best of the Conservative Party as it sets out to elect a leader who will be Prime Minister.

What are the expectations as to who will lead? The 1922 Committee set out the parameters of the race. An MP must be “nominated” by at least 100 colleagues in order to qualify. With 357 MPs, there can be no more than 3 candidates.

Nominations end on Monday; if only one candidate stands, this MP will automatically become leader. If there are three candidates, a vote will be held Monday evening to whittle the contestants to two. MPs will then vote on Tuesday, to declare to the membership who enjoys the support of the parliamentary party. Conservative members will vote online and the winner declared on Friday.

At present, the three contenders are the former Treasury chief, Rishi Sunak, Prime Minister Johnson, and the Commons’ leader, Penny Mordaunt. According to the Guido Fawkes website, their support is, respectively, 120-71-25 (at time of writing) — with 141 Tory MPs undeclared. As for BoJo, who has just returned to Britain, he has said he’s “up for it” and that he’s “going to do it!” 

As I sketched yesterday, all the candidates have flaws that, in normal circumstances, would have made them unpalatable to the party membership.

Yet these are not normal times. All are tainted by the Government’s high-tax/high-spend policy, none more so than Johnson and Sunak, authors of that “unconservative” administration.

For all her faults, at least outgoing Premier Liz Truss’s tax cuts aimed at economic growth. But Trussonomics was castigated by public clamor and binned by the new chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt (a Sunak ally). 

As it is, all speculation may ultimately be for nought. Given the nature of the rules devised by the 1922 Committee, it is more than likely that, given this scenario, three will drop quickly to one before the Monday deadline.

Consider: Mr. Sunak has significantly more than 100 MP nominations, while Ms. Mordaunt barely passes the threshold (or, before the deadline, fails to meet the qualification). Mr. Johnson would need overwhelming support from Ms. Mordaunt’s released “delegates” to overtake Mr. Sunak; and assume that Mr. Sunak will also pick up some of her supporters. There are also those MPs who have not declared their support to consider.

Doubtless these calculations will be going through the minds of the Conservative candidates and caucus as Monday nears. Ms. Mordaunt may bow out quickly if the numbers are against her. With Mr. Sunak now leading in the Guido Fawkes tally, Mr. Johnson, disgraced once, may decide to decline further embarrassment.

Johnson supporters are already calling this 1922 Committee leadership contest a “stop BoJo stitch-up.” Rumors are that some Tory MPs, disgusted by this entire proceeding, are considering leaving the Conservative Party in favor of Reform UK — founded by Nigel Farage as the successor to his Brexit Party.

Mr. Farage himself has hinted at a return to the political fray. “I absolutely could not do that on my own,” he confesses. “It would need several major figures to recognize that the Conservative Party is dead.”

The most recent YouGov poll substantiates his pessimism. Labor stands at 56 percent support, with the Conservatives trailing at a distant 19 percent — barely leading the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

As to who would prove the best prime minister, the Labor leader, Sir Keir Starmer, beats any of his three prospective Tory rivals: Mr. Johnson (48 percent to 35 percent); Mr. Sunak (43 percent to 34 percent), and Ms. Mordaunt (43 percent to 28 percent).

Grim prospects indeed. The Conservative Party has not only betrayed its own belief, but the nation. Now both will face the consequences. Before Tories can hope to reclaim their party (let alone the country), they must return to first principles, of “maximal liberty and minimal government.”

No easy task. The Conservative Government will almost certainly fall to its Labor opposition. Whether principled conservatives can rally to save the United Kingdom, remains to be seen.

Nelson’s own reflections leading up to Trafalgar will help to stiffen Tory resolve: “As these are times for exertion, I must not be cast down, whatever I may feel.”

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